AI is everywhere these days. It’s the hot new thing that everyone talks about. Most are excited about AI’s potential to change and revolutionise the way we do most things. Many are also fearful – about AI’s long-term potential to cause harm if adequate checks and balances are not put in place. What happens if AI goes rogue? Will humanity be reduced to mere drones someday, slave to armies of AI-controlled bots? Will the excessive use of AI limit the development of our own brains – perhaps make us a bit dull and overly dependent on artificial intelligence, rather than our own, to get things done? Many of those might be valid concerns and we seriously doubt if anyone has all the answers. Where AI will go, where it’ll reach and what it’ll be doing in the next 10, 20 or 30 years, nobody really knows. What seems almost certain is that AI will likely have far-reaching consequences, many of which we perhaps can’t imagine right now. But that’s how the future is supposed to work, right?
In the meanwhile, for those who may want to know more about AI, its development, its implications for a range of businesses and how it may affect our own lives, there’s this interesting new book – AI Rising – written by Leslie D’Monte and Jayanth N Kolla, which promises to give us the real lowdown on AI. Leslie, currently executive editor with LiveMint, is a senior journalist who has covered the technology beat for more than 25 years, so he’s pretty much seen it all when it comes to technology. Jayanth is head of strategy at a major tech firm, working at the intersection of healthcare, deep tech and data-based value creation. We had a chance to read AI Rising and found it most interesting, packed as it is with useful perspective and insights into the ways in which AI works. We also had an opportunity to ask a few questions and get the authors’ views on various aspects of AI and how it may affect our lives in the years to come. Here are some excerpts from the conversation, followed by an excerpt from the book itself.
BooksFirst: In your own individual ways, you have both worked closely with technology for more than two decades. In all these years, of all the tech that you’ve seen come and go, is AI at least potentially the biggest of them all? Does it have the potential to forever change, in significant ways, life as we know it now?
Leslie D’Monte and Jayanth N Kolla: The short answer is ‘Yes’, despite the current limitation of AI models and the disruption they will continue to cause in terms of challenging existing business models and increasing job losses due to automation. The power of AI and Generative AI is already being felt across sectors. Love it or hate it, generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT are impossible to ignore. These tools have enamoured millions of individuals and small companies with their ability to write blogs, make short films, draw images, make videos, generate software code, and even provide templates for marketing campaigns without any human intervention, even as bigger companies are treading this ground with a lot of caution.
Unlike traditional machine learning (ML) that can analyse data patterns to make predictions, Generative AI foundational models and large language models (LLMs) have the ability to learn the structure of almost any information – be it text, images, video, proteins, DNA, physics, etc. – and generate new content with the help of ‘prompts’. Big and small companies are now fine-tuning (customising) these LLMs and using LLM-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, Bing Chat, Bard, Hugging Chat, Dall-E 2, and Mid-Journey, to reduce their customer centre, content and agency costs, since it also increases their shareholder value, or bargaining power to seek higher valuations for the next funding round, as the case may be.
Having said that, with traditional or conventional AI, which specialised in Pattern Recognition, Trend Analysis, Profiling and Prediction/Forecasting, Generative AI’s content creation skills overlay a complementary qualitative layer over its earlier counterpart’s quantitative one. And together, they form a strong combination with potential to impact many sectors and applications.
The alarm bells notwithstanding, Generative AI is also finding mention in global boardrooms. AI was discussed by 17% of CEOs in the March quarter, spurred by the release of ChatGPT and the discussions around its potential use cases. For instance, ChatGPT application programming interfaces (APIs allow applications to talk to each other) can help employees use their company’s search engine to access data in a more natural language format, analyse the context, and learn from the user’s search history to provide better results. Human resources (HR) tasks like onboarding, training, performance management, and employee queries and complaints can also be automated using ChatGPT. AI can also help with compliance, credit risk management, investment research, and legal document processing in the financial sector.
According to Goldman Sachs estimates, Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% ($7 trillion) and increase productivity by 1.5% in the next decade. PwC estimates that Generative AI will likely only continue to grow, with an estimated $15.7 trillion of potential contribution to the global economy by 2030.
In the Indian context, what could be the biggest impact that AI might have on our lives in the short- to mid-term? Will AI make our lives better in ways that can be measured and quantified?
Accenture predicts that AI can add about $1 trillion to India’s economy by 2035. Big companies and start-ups have already implemented AI in some form or the other in the last six years. Industry bodies like NASSCOM, too, have sharpened their focus on the role of AI, start-ups and Digital India. Premier institutions like the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) now offer multiple AI-related courses and have incubated hundreds of deep tech – another term for these cutting-edge technologies – start-ups. Further, investors love to pump money into AI-powered companies in the hope of spectacular returns.
India’s AI advantage stems from the fact that it has a skilled talent pool of over five million technology professionals and more than five million software developers. It also has a robust AI start-up ecosystem comprising entrepreneurs, venture capitalists (VCs), and research and development (R&D) hubs. Last, but not least, the government also believes that AI can benefit society.
Over 16% of AI engineers around the world are Indians. The second biggest AI talent pool in the world. And, I personally through my travels and discussions with senior industry folks in Europe and North America have understood that any AI engineer’s resume with an Indian name on it goes on top of the pile by recruiters and HR professionals. So, not only by quantity, even by quality India is a significant contributor to the AI talent pool around the world. Various companies, big and small, across industries are seriously looking at India as a big market… and, every company in India is seriously planning an AI strategy… including leveraging the country’s talent pool. What is required for companies in India to truly leverage AI for business growth is Product Marketing capabilities, beyond the technical capabilities.
There has been a lot of talk about how AI is ‘coming for our jobs.’ Is it? Who should be afraid and why?
An OpenAI report this March suggests that four in five U.S. workers (80%) could have at least 10% of their tasks automated by Generative AI, and one in five (19%) could see at least half of their responsibilities affected. Goldman Sachs predicts that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation, while a Microsoft report says 74% of Indian workers are worried that AI will replace their jobs. Jobs of content creators, artists, media persons, coders, customer care agents, bank tellers, postal service clerks, data entry operators, and paralegals, appear to be most impacted.
Media jobs, too, are undergoing a transformation. In July, for instance, an Odisha-based private news channel Odisha TV launched an AI-generated news anchor named ‘Lisa‘, who now presents news both in Odia and English for OTV Network’s television and digital platforms. Many US-based media organisations, too, use AI to generate content, and declare it so too, claiming many routine desk and reporting jobs.
According to a McKinsey report, those working in the technology and financial services sector are the most likely to expect disruptive change from Generative AI, simply because industries relying most heavily on knowledge work are likely to see more disruption while potentially reaping more value at the same time. These would include tech companies, banking, pharmaceuticals and medical products, and education.
If AI will take away some jobs, will it also help create new ones? In an AI-enabled world, what new skills would people require in order to ensure that they are not left behind and/or rendered obsolete?
Manufacturing-based industries such as aerospace, automotive, and advanced electronics, could experience less disruptive effects, according to McKinsey. This, the firm explains, is in contrast to the impact of previous technology waves that affected manufacturing the most and is due to Generative AI’s strengths in language-based activities, as opposed to those requiring physical labour.
Surveys conducted for the Future of Jobs Report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) corroborate this trend, suggesting that the highest job growth in 2023-2027 will be for agricultural equipment operators, drivers of heavy trucks and buses, and vocational education teachers, followed by mechanics and machinery repairers and business development professionals. For instance, WEF expects jobs for agricultural professionals to rise by 30% in the coming five years, spurred by the increasing use of agricultural technologies and investments in climate change. The education sector, too, is expected to see an increase in jobs with more people taking up courses to upgrade their skills in AI and other technologies.
As Martin Ford, author of Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything, told the BBC, “The white-collar employee’s future is more threatened than the Uber driver, because we still don’t have self-driving cars, but AI can certainly write reports.”
Generative AI tools are also assisting humans to perform better, and have the potential to make us better writers, artists, and coders while also creating new jobs like prompt engineers, AI safety and security officers, data scientists, machine learning engineers, and data engineers, to name a few. Reskilling is the order of the day, and companies and governments have a big role to play here.
BCG recommends: a) Ensure that there are spaces for responsible AI experimentation in companies. b) Given the pace at which technology is evolving, organizations cannot treat upskilling as a one-off effort. They need to invest in training to help employees prepare for changes in their work and help them succeed in their evolving roles. c) Prioritize building a responsible AI program: Employees want guidance and reassurance that their organizations are approaching AI and GenAI ethically, and leaders want to be able to help frame emerging AI regulations.
AI, especially Generative AI, is en masse democratising content and software product development creation… one key skill that would be required by everyone to remain relevant, if not thrive, in the AI-led future is – creativity and innovativeness. The ability to connect seemingly disparate dots to create a new big picture.
What is your view of the steps that policymakers in India need to take, in order to ensure that the power of AI is not misused and that all potential for harm is eliminated or at least minimised?
It’s the exponential progress in generative AI models that are used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos, appears to have alarmed many ever since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT – they believe these models will think and act like humans, plagiarize the work of artists, and replace thousands of routine jobs. More importantly, the fear is that Generative AI is only getting smarter with each passing day, and researchers are unable to understand the ‘How’ of it.
UNESCO recommends international and national policies and regulatory frameworks and a “human-centred AI” that will benefit the “greater interest of the people, not the other way around”. To date, more than 40 countries in all regions of the world are already working with UNESCO to develop AI checks and balances at the national level. UNESCO will present a progress report at its Global Forum on the Ethics of AI in Slovenia in December 2023. That said, the banning of ChatGPT-like tools or LLMs is not wise since you may end up throwing the baby with the bathwater. Hence, given the exponential pace at which LLMs have developed, governments will have to join forces with international bodies like UNESCO to develop global frameworks, which they can subsequently apply in their own countries while keeping in mind their respective cultures, ethnicities, and other sensitivities (since AI biases stem from these considerations too) – but all with a tremendous sense of urgency. India’s Digital India Act may have to address some of these issues.
All experts and governments agree that they must check the unbridled run of AI and Generative AI with a human-centred Responsible AI regulatory framework. Canada has drafted the Artificial Intelligence and Data Act (AIDA) while the US has the AI Bill of Rights and State Initiatives. On 21 July, the US government also secured voluntary commitments from seven leading AI companies – Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI – to help move toward safe, secure, and transparent development of AI technology. China’s draft on ‘Administrative Measures for Generative AI Services’ is open for public consultation, while Brazil and Japan, too, have draft regulations in place.
India is already a founding member of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI) which includes countries such as the US, the UK, EU, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea, and Singapore. India’s Digital India Act (DIA), which will replace the IT Act 2000, is expected to regulate AI and intermediaries that are high-risk AI when notified, but it does not have a separate legislation for AI as yet.
Rajeev Chandrasekhar, minister of state for electronics and information technology, has often said that the Indian government’s “…approach towards AI regulation or indeed any regulation is that we will regulate it through the prism of user harm”. He believes that the current state of development of AI is “very task-oriented” and “not sophisticated enough” to warrant any extreme steps. This is a sensible approach to avoid prematurely strangling innovation, especially when an emerging technology like AI is also being harnessed for immense good.
With the authors’ permission, here is an excerpt from the book AI Rising:
Companies such as Uber, Ola and Oyo are categorised as digital natives. Users only need to access their mobile apps to call a taxi or book a hotel. Others, such as Amazon, Walmart, and Reliance, are digital hybrids and are recognised as phygital companies. The reason is that they combine their digital presence with a physical or offline one by building warehouses and retail shops in the real world.
It’s important, however, not to miss the fact that all those companies that adopted digital transformation have one thing in common—regardless of whether they are digital natives or digital hybrids (phygitals), they are continually using AI tools as part of their digital transformation strategy to give them a consistent edge.
For example, most of us log on to e-commerce sites such as Flipkart or Amazon India for our shopping needs. This is the digital part of the experience. But these companies also have physical warehouses where they store the inventory so that they can deliver the goods to you on time. This is why digital transformation has to be effective both online and in physical warehouses. But these e-commerce companies were born as digital natives. Tata’s Croma and Reliance Digital, on the other hand, have both physical stores and online shopping. We call these companies phygitals or digital hybrids.
In this context, it may come as a pleasant surprise that many companies adopting AI are non-core technology companies. Core technology companies refer primarily to digital technologies-led industries and companies, such as IT products and services, telecom services providers, consumer internet companies, and enterprise software companies. Non-core technology companies, on the other hand, comprise industries that use machines and digital technologies as enablers for their core offerings. Examples include companies in the oil and gas, healthcare, automotive, banking and financial services, education, and insurance sectors.
For instance, how many of us would typically associate oil and gas companies with cutting-edge technology terms like AI, ML and IoT? The fact, however, is that all major upstream and downstream oil and gas companies around the world, including India, use these technologies for the exploration of oil, predictive maintenance (where ML is used to alert workers and managers of a faulty leak or potential danger and urge them to repair it before it becomes a serious problem), and improving customer experience.
Let’s take the example of India’s second-largest oil and gas company, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), which announced a partnership with consulting firm Accenture to digitally transform its extensive sales and distribution network in April 2021. Accenture plans to use its capabilities in data, AI, and cloud technologies to build, design, and implement a digital platform christened IRIS.
This platform will help BPCL integrate real-time data from across its countrywide network, which includes more than 18,000 fuel retail outlets, 25,000 tank trucks, 75 oil installations and depots, 52 liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plants, and 250 additional industrial and commercial locations, to provide a consolidated view of its extensive operations, according to an April 13, 2021 press statement.
The IRIS platform will use analytics based on AI and ML technologies to trigger automated alerts and actions. This will also empower the more than 1,00,000 BPCL workforce across the country to react swiftly and make faster and more accurate decisions, including preventative maintenance. This can help increase sales at retail fuel outlets by minimising infrastructure downtime and ensuring consistent fuel quality, as well as improving the experience for customers.
IRIS can accept more than three million inputs per second from automated sensors, cameras, and IoT devices deployed at all key locations. It can track performance based on key parameters such as fuel stock, safety, compliance, equipment health and boosting asset uptime. BPCL’s field workforce and partner network will have a seamless experience thanks to support from a portal, mobile app, and call centres in Noida and Chennai. The digital sales and distribution platform will use BPCL’s cloud infrastructure, only making it more agile and scalable.
BPCL is simply a case in point of a non-core technology company adopting AI-powered digital tools. Let’s now look at another sector and consider the case of consumer electronics brand Samsung’s AI-enabled bilingual washing machine that has a Hindi and English user interface. This washing machine line-up, with 21 new models, learns and remembers laundry habits and suggests the most frequently used wash cycle.
Since this washing machine is also IoT-enabled, it can connect with Samsung smart devices, such as Galaxy smartphones, Samsung Smart TVs and Family Hub refrigerators, as well as voice devices, such as Alexa and Google Home, to allow you to operate it remotely. According to a press statement, this washing machine “has been customised for India with over 2000 wash combinations and 2.8 million big data analysis points for different types of fabrics and can be controlled with a smartphone or a Samsung connected device.”
As these examples suggest, many AI solutions are being implemented across a wide range of industries and companies. Just like mobile telecommunication, cloud computing, GPS, and even electricity, AI has application and adoption potential in every industry. AI, according to a NASSCOM report, has the potential to add $450–500 billion to the gross domestic product (GDP) of India by 2025.
The target is achievable since AI does improve the capabilities of companies to increase their revenue. There are two reasons for this, according to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The first reason is that “AI’s ability to detect very weak signals helps companies develop, refine, and generate numerous forecasts (such as those for demand, supply, inventory, prices, and logistics).”
The second is that AI works at a pace that provides companies with the ability to analyse large amounts of data to make decisions in real-time. “By improving the accuracy of forecasts and by enabling real-time decisions, AI helps companies generate more revenue,” BCG notes.
Given this context, let’s explore how AI helps companies earn more money with some examples. As it is well said, the proof of the pudding lies in the eating.
AI Rising
Authors: Leslie D’Monte and Jayanth N Kolla
Publisher: Jaico Publishing House
Format: Paperback / Kindle
Number of pages: 272 / 272
Price: Rs 435 / Rs 413
Available on Amazon
BooksFirst 